By
Bachchu Kailash Kaini
"The future" of
society and of health care cannot be predicted with certainty. But there are
patterns of change that can be anticipated. We know with some certainty, for
instance, how many Nepali over age 65 there will be in the second decade of the
twenty-first century, even if we are not as certain about their health status.
Breakthrough in science and technology can be anticipated in areas such as
mapping the human genome and understanding healthy aging. The specific timing
of relevant scientific discoveries, their translation into technological
applications, and uptake into medical practice are much more difficult to
forecast.
Changes in societal values,
public policy, and individual behaviour are even more uncertain. Yet these
changes are often more important. Will we deal with poverty, the single largest
correlate to ill health? Will trends
toward consumer interest in health increase? How will national health care
policy and financing evolve? Scenarios - alternative futures for health care in
the twenty-first century - allow us to explore varying answers to these
questions. Scenarios are designed to provoke the imagination, raise fundamental
questions and stretch world views.
While each scenario presents
a unique image, one revolutionary change - the "predict and manage"
paradigm - is common to them all. Increasing understanding of aging, disease,
and genetics will allow us to predict normal declines in health and the course
of illness. Better behavioral change techniques and a host of advanced
therapeutics and preventive approaches will allow us to "manage"
health, leading to lower morbidity. Yet these illuminate major plausible
futures for health care, posing key choices for health care leadership.
Advances in medical
knowledge and technology made it possible to predict and increasingly manage an
individual's health and illness over his or her life course, profoundly
altering health care delivery to be insured. The "predict and manage"
paradigm linked the talents of clinicians, behavioral specialists, advanced
technology and knowledge.
Nowadays health care
delivery became more effective and efficient compared to past. Though we have
to cross many stages to reach to the certain standards. Hospital faced
challenging times. Expansive technology, inadequate doctors, unavailability of
resources and increasing demands are few challenging aspects of modern health
care system and hospital set up.
The twentieth-century
hospital cured the body; the twenty-first-century hospital cures the body and
heals the person. The body repair shop metaphor of the twentieth century has
broken down. The hospital no longer just repairs the car; it also works on the
driver. Consumers are encouraged to take greater responsibility for their
health and to select from a wider range of diagnosis and treatment.
Times are rough for the
economy as a whole and for health care too. Political unsuitability and
betrayal make more unpredictable future of Nepalese people for their better
health. Hard times should be made easier with long-term vision, political
commitment and sound infrastructure. An effective coalition of concerned
authority, health care policy makers, governmental and non-governmental
organizations should make reform a viable issue. Consumers should be empowered
by government policies and development of outcome measures and their
application to all providers and therapies. Primary health care services should
become smarter and quicker to reward cost effective innovation.
Dramatic changes in the
paradigms of science, technology, society, and government hasten health care
change worldwide. Health care broadens its focus from urban to rural and the
secondary level care to primary level care in Nepal. Dissatisfaction does
appear in community health care and there should be changes in the health care
delivery system especially in rural area.
The second half of the
twentieth century has witnessed phenomenal changes in the health care systems
of almost all the countries. During the
last three decades medical science has made unprecedented progress and
surpassed the achievements of past two centuries. The three movements, each
having a pore-eminent concern and currently seeking to change the world of medicine,
are - the proponents of evidence based medicine are mainly concerned with
ensuring that strategies of proven clinical effectiveness are adopted; the
health economists are mainly concerned with establishing that cost
effectiveness and not clinical effectiveness is the criterion used in
determining option selection; and a variety of patient support and public
interest groups are mainly concerned with ensuring that patient and public
preferences drive clinical and policy decisions.
The coverage of health
services has fluctuated over the years in Nepal, with improvement in some
programmes and failure to meet the targets.
There is a need to make improvement in programmes that failed to meet
targets. Also there is a need to strive to improve both the quality and
quantity of our work in order to meet the rising expectations of the people.
Consolidated effort in institutionalizing the planning, monitoring and
evaluation will definitely help to run the health care programme in efficient
and effective way to use the limited and scarce resources. The right
presentation of problems, constraints, action to be taken and deadlines for
those actions on health care issues will give a sense of direction and a common
understanding of the objectives and activities to be accomplished in the days
to come.
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